Mr. Trump’s 2016 promise to “win so much, you may even get tired of winning” may not have materialized, but he has found other wins in the meantime. He, in the span of four years, has ascended from a TV personality to the center of a cult of personality, with his own force of personality. The man is undeniably charismatic, having dominated the news cycle even post-Presidency with a messy, contemptible, yet effective combination of outrageous insanity and memorable lines. When he claims “Ron DeSanctamonious” needs a personality transplant, that stays in heads. “Fake News” has been entrenched in the public lexicon. Even “covefefe” is the type of tweet that goes viral. Mr. Trump is one of the masters of staying in headlines and making an impression.
On the other hand, President Biden’s most memorable moments include telling Trump to shut up three years ago, TikTok edits and the AI president discord memes. Biden is not charismatic. He does have an extremely strong legislative record, and he’s had big victories on the international stage. The Biden administration has managed to pass a startling amount of high-impact legislation, despite working with razor-thin majorities and grappling with often obstinate moderates in Senators Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema. The war in Ukraine has been an objectively massive strategic victory on almost every level; Russia’s military and economy are in tatters for a relative pittance in military aid. But wartime visits to Kyiv impress foreign policy analysts and political commentators on Twitter: they do not win elections.
This becomes evident in the polling: only 50% of Democrats even want Biden to run for a second term. The contrast between an objectively successful presidency (for Democrats), only seriously marred by inflation, and the lack of enthusiasm for Biden himself is stark. In modern American politics, bipartisan support is something of a fever dream; Republicans are likely to never approve of Biden’s handling of any issue. But the lack of fervor from his own party is far more concerning.
After Hillary Clinton lost in 2016, the Democratic Party was looking for a new leader and face for the party, and the idea of Biden as that face is strange. But, consider the history and Biden’s competitors in the 2020 primaries. Amongst Biden’s moderate challengers were Mr. Bloomberg, and Secretary of Transportation Buttigeg. Mr. Obama was a charismatic rising star in 2008. In 2020, there was no rising star from the party’s establishment wing, save an inexperienced then-Mayor Buttigeg. Mr. Bloomberg is Mr. Bloomberg. Senator Klobuchar’s defining trait was that she was from Minnesota. Vice President Harris talked about busing really well that one time.
The overriding debate in 2020, beyond policy, was electability, driven by fear of a second Trump term. This concern sidelined Senator Sanders, whose self-identification as a socialist poisoned him in the eyes of DNC elites. In response to Senator Sanders’ strong position post-Iowa, there was an imperative for moderate candidates to drop out and coalesce around a candidate that could beat an “unelectable” Sanders and beat Trump. Joe Biden was the milquetoast candidate that fit. Old and uncharismatic, but at the time, uncontroversial and popular. Biden was not a candidate to present a sweeping new vision of America, but one that could harken back to Obama. Not really running on policy like a senator Warren, Sanders, or even Hickenlooper, but one campaigning on a return to normal. Biden was nominated to win an election and make politics boring again.
From his age to his speech, it all evokes “dry”. Until recently, the Biden administration leaned into that, embracing a policy oriented media approach, favoring an image of boring and competent. Though he is trying to reorient his public image for his reelection campaign, his image is largely set. America knows him as a boring old man, and the DNC shouldn’t be surprised because that’s exactly who they nominated three years ago.
